Portfolio Value
$984,520
-1.55%
Cash
$750,077
76% of portfolio
Positions
5
$234,443 invested
Total P&L
$-15,480
from $1,000,000
Win Rate
N/A
0 total trades
Avg Return
N/A
per trade
📊 Open Positions
| Ticker | Company | Shares | Entry | Current | Return | P&L | Days | Type | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIMX | Himax Technologies, | 2949 | $16.95 | $18.11 | +6.8% | $+3,421 | 10d | ML_Y3 | 52% |
| TNGX | Tango Therapeutics, | 1735 | $28.81 | $27.97 | -2.9% | $-1,457 | 10d | ML_Y3 | 50% |
| PL | Planet Labs PBC | 1475 | $33.89 | $28.23 | -16.7% | $-8,348 | 7d | ML_Y3 | 50% |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corpo | 1685 | $29.66 | $27.93 | -5.8% | $-2,915 | 3d | ML_Y3 | 54% |
| AXTI | AXT, Inc. | 518 | $96.50 | $84.57 | -12.4% | $-6,180 | 3d | ML_Y3 | 55% |
💡 Trade Rationale
Entered 2026-06-19
LEGN
Legend Biotech Corporatio
Signal Narrative
Y3 prob=53.6%
Entry: $29.66
Current: $27.93
Stop Loss: -99%
Take Profit: +99%
AXTI
AXT, Inc.
Signal Narrative
Y3 prob=55.4%
Entry: $96.50
Current: $84.57
Stop Loss: -99%
Take Profit: +99%
Entered 2026-06-15
PL
Planet Labs PBC
Signal Narrative
Y3 prob=50.1%
Entry: $33.89
Current: $28.23
Stop Loss: -99%
Take Profit: +99%
Entered 2026-06-12
HIMX
Himax Technologies, Inc.
Signal Narrative
Y3 prob=52.0%
Why We Bought
HIMX的超额跌幅达-8.9%，但触发因素是SemiAnalysis的CPO技术延迟报告——这是分析师观点而非公司公告或确定性事件。HIMX的核心收入来自显示驱动IC而非CPO，CPO业务占比有限，板块性恐慌导致的抛售可能过度惩罚了HIMX。Devil's advocate中关于'成长溢价压缩'的论点有一定道理，但-11%的跌幅对于一个边缘业务的技术延迟报告而言仍显过度。不过，由于信息源是分析师报告而非公司公告，且HIMX的CPO业务实际占比和估值贡献难以精确量化，置信度受限。
What Market Missed (2nd Order)
如果CPO延迟是暂时性的（技术路线未变，只是时间表推迟），市场可能在恐慌消退后重新定价；但如果延迟意味着技术路线存在根本性障碍，则HIMX的硅光子/WLO业务前景需要重新评估
Devil's Advocate
1) HIMX近年来积极布局CPO/硅光子领域，市场给予的估值溢价中包含了CPO成长预期，如果CPO技术延迟是真实的，这部分溢价理应被压缩，-11%可能反映的是成长故事的折价而非仅仅是当前业务的影响；2) HIMX市值仅$2.8B，属于中小盘半导体股，流动性相对有限，在板块性恐慌中容易出现超额波动，且机构持仓调整可能放大跌幅；3) 显示驱动IC本身是周期性业务，当前全球消费电子需求复苏力度存疑，如果CPO这个增长引擎也出现延迟，HIMX可能面临'旧业务周期性+新业务延迟'的双重压力，分析师看空文章可能反映了更深层的基本面担忧
Risk Factors
CPO技术延迟可能比预期更严重，影响HIMX长期成长叙事 | 显示驱动IC核心业务可能面临周期性下行压力 | 中小盘半导体股在宏观不确定性中可能持续承压
Expected Recovery
2-4周
Entry: $16.95
Current: $18.11
Stop Loss: -99%
Take Profit: +99%
TNGX
Tango Therapeutics, Inc.
Signal Narrative
Y3 prob=50.2%
Entry: $28.81
Current: $27.97
Stop Loss: -99%
Take Profit: +99%
📄 Latest Analysis Report
# Signal Performance Report — 2026-06-19
## Verdict Accuracy
### MISJUDGMENT (7 signals)
- ✅ **HIMX** (2026-06-10) drop:-11.2% → Day9:+11.6% [-] conf:55% SemiAnalysis报告指出CPO（共封装光学）关键技术延迟，引发光电子板块
- ✅ **DNTH** (2026-06-10) drop:-9.6% → Day9:+7.9% [-] conf:72% Sanofi终止其CIDP疗法的晚期临床试验（因疗效问题），市场担忧这对Dian
- ❌ **PTC** (2026-06-11) drop:-12.4% → Day8:-3.1% [-] conf:62% PTC因Oracle财报后宣布$40B融资计划引发软件板块恐慌性抛售，被视为AI
- ✅ **ORCL** (2026-06-11) drop:-8.5% → Day8:+0.1% [-] conf:62% Oracle交出创纪录Q4财报，但宣布FY2027将筹集$40B（债务+股权）用
- ✅ **NAVN** (2026-06-12) drop:-11.0% → Day7:+8.7% [-] conf:62% Navan发布财报后，尽管多家分析师上调目标价并维持买入评级，股价仍大跌11%—
- ❌ **ADBE** (2026-06-12) drop:-7.0% → Day7:-4.0% [-] conf:62% Adobe CFO Dan Durn离职跳槽至Marvell，叠加分析师下调评级
- ✅ **RDDT** (2026-06-12) drop:-7.3% → Day7:+8.9% [-] conf:62% Reddit被排除出S&P 500指数，触发被动资金抛售和市场对其地位的重新评估
**Accuracy: 5/7 (71%)**
### CORRECT (7 signals)
- ✅ **SMCI** (2026-06-10) drop:-18.1% → Day9:-7.9% [-] conf:75% SMCI宣布70亿美元股权融资计划，市场担忧大规模稀释现有股东权益，尽管公司同时
- ❌ **LCID** (2026-06-10) drop:-8.7% → Day9:+14.0% [-] conf:75% Lucid股价跌至历史新低，SeekingAlpha下调评级，叠加证券集体诉讼、
- ❌ **MARA** (2026-06-10) drop:-5.2% → Day9:+12.7% [-] conf:68% 比特币价格下跌叠加大盘回调，拖累MARA等比特币矿业/持仓公司股价；同时分析师因
- ❌ **MOS** (2026-06-10) drop:-6.9% → Day9:+15.5% [-] conf:62% MOS在财报发布30天后持续下跌，叠加大盘和板块整体走弱，股价创52周新低，市场
- ❌ **RIVN** (2026-06-10) drop:-6.2% → Day9:+11.9% [-] conf:62% Rivian开始交付R2车型，但市场对其'平价'定位产生质疑，消费者认为相比Te
- ❌ **NAMSW** (2026-06-09) drop:-5.0% → Day10:+0.5% [-] conf:70% 大盘下跌1.6%拖累小盘生物制药股，叠加成交量放大可能有部分获利了结
- ❌ **CLOV** (2026-06-12) drop:-5.3% → Day7:+7.8% [-] conf:65% CLOV在法院判决推动星级评级升级后暴涨18.9%，次日回落5.3%属于典型的利
**Accuracy: 1/7 (14%)**
### UNCLEAR (11 signals)
- ❓ **SKM** (2026-06-10) drop:-6.6% → Day9:-5.9% [-] conf:45% SKM随AI/科技硬件板块抛售下跌，市场将其归类为AI概念股（量子安全+AI校准
- ❓ **WULF** (2026-06-10) drop:-5.7% → Day9:+21.4% [-] conf:45% TeraWulf宣布增发股票（stock offering），发行价较前收盘价折
- ❓ **QCOM** (2026-06-10) drop:-6.5% → Day9:+17.7% [-] conf:45% 半导体板块整体遭抛售，芯片股集体下跌，QCOM作为高beta半导体股跟随板块下行
- ❓ **INSM** (2026-06-10) drop:-5.1% → Day9:+1.9% [-] conf:45% Insmed在Goldman Sachs医疗会议上的演讲未能提供超预期催化剂，叠
- ❓ **CMCM** (2026-06-10) drop:-9.3% → Day9:-7.7% [-] conf:40% 猎豹移动Q1仍然亏损（EPS -$0.07），尽管同比改善，市场对持续亏损的微型
- ❓ **TNGX** (2026-06-10) drop:-9.1% → Day9:-2.5% [-] conf:45% TNGX在胰腺癌临床数据公布后暴涨50%+后，公司宣布$6亿增发融资+内部人士计
- ❓ **AD** (2026-06-11) drop:-23.4% → Day8:-3.1% [-] conf:30% AD在大盘上涨日暴跌23%触及52周新低，但缺乏明确的催化剂新闻覆盖，可能存在未
- ❓ **SATS** (2026-06-12) drop:-9.0% → Day7:-6.3% [-] conf:45% SpaceX IPO正式上市后，SATS作为SpaceX代理投资标的的稀缺性溢价
- ❓ **PL** (2026-06-12) drop:-6.4% → Day7:-11.7% [-] conf:45% SpaceX即将在Nasdaq上市，投资者从PL等现有太空股中轮动资金转向Spa
- ❓ **HIMS** (2026-06-12) drop:-5.5% → Day7:+30.1% [-] conf:45% 多重竞争压力叠加（Eli Lilly GLP-1扩张、WeightWatcher
- ❓ **HAWK** (2026-06-12) drop:-5.2% → Day7:-5.8% [-] conf:40% 无明确催化剂的个股下跌，成交量大幅萎缩55%，可能是流动性驱动的价格波动或机构调
## Missed Opportunities
These were NOT flagged as MISJUDGMENT but recovered significantly:
- **WULF** judged UNCLEAR → Day9:+21.4% (TeraWulf宣布增发股票（stock offering），发行价较前收盘价折)
- **QCOM** judged UNCLEAR → Day9:+17.7% (半导体板块整体遭抛售，芯片股集体下跌，QCOM作为高beta半导体股跟随板块下行)
- **LCID** judged CORRECT → Day9:+14.0% (Lucid股价跌至历史新低，SeekingAlpha下调评级，叠加证券集体诉讼、)
- **MARA** judged CORRECT → Day9:+12.7% (比特币价格下跌叠加大盘回调，拖累MARA等比特币矿业/持仓公司股价；同时分析师因)
- **MOS** judged CORRECT → Day9:+15.5% (MOS在财报发布30天后持续下跌，叠加大盘和板块整体走弱，股价创52周新低，市场)
- **RIVN** judged CORRECT → Day9:+11.9% (Rivian开始交付R2车型，但市场对其'平价'定位产生质疑，消费者认为相比Te)
- **HIMS** judged UNCLEAR → Day7:+30.1% (多重竞争压力叠加（Eli Lilly GLP-1扩张、WeightWatcher)
- **CLOV** judged CORRECT → Day7:+7.8% (CLOV在法院判决推动星级评级升级后暴涨18.9%，次日回落5.3%属于典型的利)